75 replies to this topic

[naknak]

Right, so that is the problem. Someone has committed a gambler's fallacy and figured that streaks of 5+ will be abundant if the mumble system is somewhat reliable.

In fact, mumble failure rates in the low single digits are sufficient to ban many users.

Here's a simulation of users who join mumble every time but are randomly counted out-of-mumble due to disconnects, mumble going down, bad detection code, etc.:
 

8% mumble failure rate =>
                           98.6% of users experience mumbility 2 or more
                           79.6% of users experience mumbility 3 or more
                           47.0% of users experience mumbility 4 or more
                           25.1% of users experience mumbility 5 or more

5% mumble failure rate =>
                           84.3% of users experience mumbility 2 or more
                           36.6% of users experience mumbility 3 or more
                           11.3% of users experience mumbility 4 or more
                            3.9% of users experience mumbility 5 or more

2% mumble failure rate =>
                           28.9% of users experience mumbility 2 or more
                            3.4% of users experience mumbility 3 or more
                            0.4% of users experience mumbility 4 or more
                            0.1% of users experience mumbility 5 or more

If mumble works perfectly 98 times out of 100, and every user joins mumble every time, you can still expect 40 out of 1000 users to receive an unjust 2-day ban, and 10 users will be banned for a week.

I think two adjustments are needed:

1. if a user has positive mumbility, keep counting good lobbies when they miss.
"miss, 4 hits, miss, hit" should have the same end result as "miss, 5 hits, miss".

2. if a user has zero mumbility, give partial credit for lobbies played before a miss. Even 10:1 would be enough. So if you play 30 mumble lobbies and then miss one, only two hits (not five) are needed to reset the mumbility.

Simulation code is in spoiler, if anyone wants to check my math.

Spoiler

#!/usr/bin/perl -w
use strict;
use constant {
    USERS => 10000,     # simulated users
    LOBBIES_PER => 200, # simulated lobbies per user
    MAX_BAN_PCT => 1    # highest acceptable %age of users wrongly banned
};
for my $failure_pct (reverse 1..8) {
    my @max=((0) x (LOBBIES_PER+1));
    for (1 .. USERS) {
        my $streak=0;
        my $mumbility=0;
        my $max_mumbility=0;
        for (1 .. LOBBIES_PER) {
            if (rand 100 >= $failure_pct) {
                $streak++;
                if ($streak>=5 and $mumbility) {
                    $streak-=5;
                    $mumbility--;
                }
            } else {
                $streak=0;
                $mumbility++;
                if ($mumbility > $max_mumbility) {
                    $max_mumbility=$mumbility;
                }
            }
        }
        $max[$max_mumbility]++;
    }

    printf "%.0f%% mumble failure rate =>\n", $failure_pct;
    for my $min (2 .. 5) {
        my $sum=0;
        $sum+=$max[$_] for $min .. LOBBIES_PER;
        my $ban_pct=$sum/USERS*100;
        printf "%31.1f%% of users experience mumbility $min or more\n", $ban_pct;
    }
}

EDIT: "40 out of 1000 users ..." should read "out of 10000". It's 4/1000 banned for two days, 1/1000 banned for a week.

[Yipyapper]

Every single one of us in that lobby was in mumble for the full time. How are we supposed to prove that we were, and please tell me why you defaulted to "you broke the rules" to him when every single one of us just happened to get bans after the lobby? Pretty unlikely that we were all breaking the rules at the same time.




I don't mean to be rude, but based on how this problem and others in the past have been dealt with, it sounds like the admins don't like to admit when they are wrong. Please just remove the limitation with this whole mumble thing until someone clears everything up. It's ruining tf2c more than it's helping by a significant margin. Look at all of the unban request forums. Look at everything going on here. There's a problem, you need to own up to it and fix it, and whether it gets fixed or not, needs to be temporarily removed.

Sorry to be blunt, but it's on everyone's mind. Don't hate the messenger

Firstly, regarding your case. My reply was intended for Anpanman ONLY. I have no idea whom else you are talking about. There were given no profiles links neither nicknames. We aren't magicians and can't read minds. According Anpanman's report I have checked his Mumble status in those lobby and made my conclusions. Now I see that according your report, Mumble status icons are showing the incorrect info. But from Anpanman's report this conclusion couldn't be made. So remember in the future, always give us as much detailed information as possible, including your personal IDs.

Secondly, I know that a lot of players are simply complaining about new Mumbility system, because they want to keep playing Mumble lobbies, while ignoring Mumble completely like they always did in a past. This era is ended. I understand why they unhappy now. And I want to say for all such players, the main goal of Mumbility - increase the quality of Mumble lobbies and filter dickheads ruining fun of others. So from now you have to choose: do you want to play a good lobby with comms or merely have a fun in regular non-Mumble lobby.

Thirdly, some players absolutely mistakenly got the conception of Mumbility, therefore they have started to think that some bans have been applied to them unfairly. Example. The friend of mine is complaining yesterday:
He: Why I got banned!? I was in Mumble.
I: Did you mute yourself?
He: Yes, I did.
I: Did you deafen yourself?
He: Yes, I was deafening myself 3 times during the lobby, because I got phonecalls.
I: Well, no surprise why you got banned if you have been deafened half of the game.
He: YOUR MUMBILITY IS CRAP! I WAS IN MUMBLE! REMOVE MY BANS!
etc.

Do you see this retarded logic? This is a typical complaint among the REAL bug reports. That's why I have asked you to filter your complaints. Nobody is going to ignore obvious bugs. We will look into it, of course. You just need to be patient and give us intelligent information instead of hysterical shouts.

Hysterical shouts? I thought I was being perfectly reasonable, but to me, it seems like you're the one that's being rather rude and abraisive towards me. I was just trying to offer my side of the opinion in a calm manner and you shot it down pretty quickly. Can you see the problem here?

And what do you mean by retarded logic? I know many people, including me, who always always go to mumble and speak in required and non-required lobbies, yet this ban still applies. This has been happening a lot, and it's why I brought it up and recommended you close the service temporarily. As for the specific case anpan whatever mentioned, the names were shown in a screenshot he posted. We were all a part of that lobby and got banned. Specific enough for you yet?

I'm really not a fan of how you're interacting with your user base. It's unprofessional, off putting and just plain rude to me.

Edited by Yipyapper, 15 November 2014 - 06:16 PM.

[RTC]

Right, so that is the problem. Someone has committed a gambler's fallacy and figured that streaks of 5+ will be abundant if the mumble system is somewhat reliable.

In fact, mumble failure rates in the low single digits are sufficient to ban many users.

Here's a simulation of users who join mumble every time but are randomly counted out-of-mumble due to disconnects, mumble going down, bad detection code, etc.:
 

8% mumble failure rate =>
                           98.6% of users experience mumbility 2 or more
                           79.6% of users experience mumbility 3 or more
                           47.0% of users experience mumbility 4 or more
                           25.1% of users experience mumbility 5 or more

5% mumble failure rate =>
                           84.3% of users experience mumbility 2 or more
                           36.6% of users experience mumbility 3 or more
                           11.3% of users experience mumbility 4 or more
                            3.9% of users experience mumbility 5 or more

2% mumble failure rate =>
                           28.9% of users experience mumbility 2 or more
                            3.4% of users experience mumbility 3 or more
                            0.4% of users experience mumbility 4 or more
                            0.1% of users experience mumbility 5 or more

If mumble works perfectly 98 times out of 100, and every user joins mumble every time, you can still expect 40 out of 1000 users to receive an unjust 2-day ban, and 10 users will be banned for a week.

I think two adjustments are needed:

1. if a user has positive mumbility, keep counting good lobbies when they miss.
"miss, 4 hits, miss, hit" should have the same end result as "miss, 5 hits, miss".

2. if a user has zero mumbility, give partial credit for lobbies played before a miss. Even 10:1 would be enough. So if you play 30 mumble lobbies and then miss one, only two hits (not five) are needed to reset the mumbility.

Simulation code is in spoiler, if anyone wants to check my math.

Spoiler

#!/usr/bin/perl -w
use strict;
use constant {
    USERS => 10000,     # simulated users
    LOBBIES_PER => 200, # simulated lobbies per user
    MAX_BAN_PCT => 1    # highest acceptable %age of users wrongly banned
};
for my $failure_pct (reverse 1..8) {
    my @max=((0) x (LOBBIES_PER+1));
    for (1 .. USERS) {
        my $streak=0;
        my $mumbility=0;
        my $max_mumbility=0;
        for (1 .. LOBBIES_PER) {
            if (rand 100 >= $failure_pct) {
                $streak++;
                if ($streak>=5 and $mumbility) {
                    $streak-=5;
                    $mumbility--;
                }
            } else {
                $streak=0;
                $mumbility++;
                if ($mumbility > $max_mumbility) {
                    $max_mumbility=$mumbility;
                }
            }
        }
        $max[$max_mumbility]++;
    }

    printf "%.0f%% mumble failure rate =>\n", $failure_pct;
    for my $min (2 .. 5) {
        my $sum=0;
        $sum+=$max[$_] for $min .. LOBBIES_PER;
        my $ban_pct=$sum/USERS*100;
        printf "%31.1f%% of users experience mumbility $min or more\n", $ban_pct;
    }
}

EDIT: "40 out of 1000 users ..." should read "out of 10000". It's 4/1000 banned for two days, 1/1000 banned for a week.

 

This is an excellent post and I fully agree with it. Whenever I lose connection to the internet due to a modem reset, my IP will often reset, which results in Mumble not recognizing my IP, and TF2C therefore banning me temporarily for not appearing in Mumble on the same IP I initially joined Mumble with. Usually, my internet is pretty reliable and I have no problems with Mumble, but this would help anyone with a dynamic IP address out a lot in order to minimize punishments on those dedicated to joining Mumble whilst maintaining full efficiency to carry out its intended purpose.

[Mother Tereza]

Hysterical shouts? I thought I was being perfectly reasonable

...

I'm really not a fan of how you're interacting with your user base. It's unprofessional, off putting and just plain rude to me.

 

Are you alone in this thread? I was talking with everyone who is reading this. This hasn't been addressed to you personally, but for unconstructive commentators mostly. But after your reply I can say that it is addressed to you also. Stay constructive and follow the topic.

[MasterNoob]

Before we continue this topic; take a look at this: http://forums.tf2cen...cooldown-fixes/

[ninjaMooCow]

I had a user, ARTZ_FROM_THE_MOOMOOS, report this:

 

ARZT_FROM_THE_MOOMOOS: I get this everytime
ARZT_FROM_THE_MOOMOOS: Verification was unsuccessful. Please try again later, or contact an admin

 

No VPN.  same IP.

76.170.211.236

[FrontLineBait]

Before we continue this topic; take a look at this: http://forums.tf2cen...cooldown-fixes/

I'm glad to see that some problems were fixed.

[MasterNoob]

I had a user, ARTZ_FROM_THE_MOOMOOS, report this:

 

ARZT_FROM_THE_MOOMOOS: I get this everytime
ARZT_FROM_THE_MOOMOOS: Verification was unsuccessful. Please try again later, or contact an admin

 

No VPN.  same IP.

76.170.211.236

 

For some reason his Player IP was set to 127.0.0.1; wondering what browser he uses, since this is likely to happen again. Anyway, his profile is now verified...

[FiZZiL]

I joined the mumble of a non-mumble required lobby, left the mumble server,

played the game and afterwards I ended up with an increased mumbility.

 

Every mumble required lobby I entered today I joined mumble and had an increased mumbility afterwards,

Is there something wrong my mumble client?

 

http://rc.tf2center....561198077627568

[MasterNoob]

I joined the mumble of a non-mumble required lobby, left the mumble server,

played the game and afterwards I ended up with an increased mumbility.

 

Every mumble required lobby I entered today I joined mumble and had an increased mumbility afterwards,

Is there something wrong my mumble client?

 

http://rc.tf2center....561198077627568

 

• Do not deafen yourself, as this does not count as being in Mumble.
• Do not change your name halfway through the game

[FiZZiL]

 

I joined the mumble of a non-mumble required lobby, left the mumble server,

played the game and afterwards I ended up with an increased mumbility.

 

Every mumble required lobby I entered today I joined mumble and had an increased mumbility afterwards,

Is there something wrong my mumble client?

 

http://rc.tf2center....561198077627568

 

• Do not deafen yourself, as this does not count as being in Mumble.
• Do not change your name halfway through the game

 

 

Does the mumbility system take into account deafening myself pre-game?

Because I did deafen myself before the game actually started because people were sh*t-talking!

 

Do you mean my Mumble name or my Steam nickname?

Im fairly sure I didn't change either in the last 4-6 weeks.

 

Im not raging at the mumbility system,

just trying to see what I did wrong so it wont happen again.

 

thanks in advance

Edited by FiZZiL, 19 November 2014 - 05:59 PM.

[MasterNoob]

Does the mumbility system take into account deafening myself pre-game?

 

Yes it does, so that does not count. Our stats indicate that you did half way through the game.

 

 

Do you mean my Mumble name or my Steam nickname?

 

Your mumble name.

[Daria Morgendorffer]

TF2C Profile: Daria Morgendorffer
Region: EU

Browser: Google Chrome
Critical plugins: --
OS: Windows
Connection type: * WiFi* Router

Bug type: Mumble
Lobby ID: #267721
Date & Time: Nov 26 2014 7:49 PM

I always join Mumble in lobbies. Sometimes I disconnect for short periods and then reconnect quickly. But I still get Mumble bans.
In the game above, Mumble went down for about 10-20 seconds, and then reconnected. I manually reconnected on the lobby page to try and avoid this issue, but received a 4 hour ban from Mumble lobbies anyway. I've attached a screenshot from after the match if that helps.
Returning my Mumbility to zero, or any help would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

Edited by Luop90, 27 November 2014 - 09:02 AM.
Merged threads. Originally named "Unjustified Mumble Ban"

[Daria Morgendorffer]

I seem to be getting a lot of mumble bans for no apparent reason as I always join mumble. I sometimes DC during but rejoin quickly.

 

Steam acc: http://steamcommunit...id/deadeyedduck

 

Logs for most recent ban:  http://logs.tf/55889...561198052495064

 

Screencap from after the match: http://i.imgur.com/sxlwD98.png

 

Any chance of returning my mumbility to zero aswell. Having to wait hours/days between games is no conducive to having a good time :/

 

Thank you

[MasterNoob]

The level 2 cooldown was caused by this Lobby:

 

http://logs.tf/558893

 

You were 390 seconds in Mumble out of a total of 1136, which is not enough.

 

Finally: do not change your Mumble name when the match has started.

 

MN

[ninjaMooCow]

Going to lock this thread because it is getting too large for me to follow.  I am going to open a new heavily moderated thread.